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Daily El Niño update

El Niño update, October 16: what to know

California: High Wind Warning and Red Flag Warning in effect as of 11:14 AM, Oct 16 Pacific, for parts of Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area, Santa Susana Mountains and Interstate 5 Corridor. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.

NOAA’s current status

El Niño Advisory

ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)

What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
ONI
The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
NWS
The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
D0–D4
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.

Region by region

California and the Sierra

5 active alerts

What’s happening

  • Active NWS alert: Red Flag Warning, in effect until 10:00 PM PDT (NWS Hanford CA), for parts of Central Sierra, North Kings River and Sequoia Kings. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 9:00 PM PDT (NWS San Francisco CA), for parts of San Francisco, Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Wind Advisory, in effect until 10:00 PM PDT (NWS Hanford CA), for parts of Indian Wells Valley, Mojave Desert Slopes and Mojave Desert. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Red Flag Warning: 2 (CA) · Wind Advisory: 2 (CA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 1 (CA)

Southern California

21 active alerts

What’s happening

  • Active NWS alert: High Wind Warning, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area, Santa Susana Mountains and Interstate 5 Corridor. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: High Wind Warning, in effect until 12:00 AM PDT (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of Riverside County Mountains. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Red Flag Warning, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Santa Clarita Valley, Ventura County Beaches and Ventura County Inland Coast. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: High Wind Warning: 8 (CA) · Red Flag Warning: 5 (CA) · Heat Advisory: 4 (CA) · Wind Advisory: 4 (CA)

Check your address

The Southwest

31 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Wind Advisory: 14 (AZ, NM) · Freeze Warning: 4 (NM) · Air Quality Alert: 3 (AZ) · Blowing Dust Advisory: 3 (NM) · High Wind Warning: 3 (AZ, NM) · Dust Advisory: 2 (AZ) · Dust Storm Warning: 2 (AZ)

The Gulf Coast

47 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Farther to the east, under the influence of ridging and surface high pressure, probabilities for below-normal precipitation are increased across the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and extending south to the Gulf Coast.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Wind Advisory: 18 (TX, LA, MS, AL) · Red Flag Warning: 11 (TX, LA, MS) · Flood Warning: 5 (TX) · Freeze Warning: 4 (TX) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 2 (TX) · Rip Current Statement: 2 (TX) · Flood Advisory: 1 (TX) · Flood Watch: 1 (TX) · Frost Advisory: 1 (TX) · High Surf Advisory: 1 (TX) · High Wind Warning: 1 (TX)

The Southeast

12 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Wind Advisory: 5 (FL, GA, NC) · Flood Warning: 3 (FL, GA) · Freeze Watch: 2 (NC) · High Surf Advisory: 1 (NC) · Lake Wind Advisory: 1 (GA, SC)

Check your address
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Sources

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