El Niño update, November 3: what to know

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 8:00 PM PST (NWS San Francisco CA), for parts of Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore, San Francisco Peninsula Coast and Northern Monterey Bay. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Lake Wind Advisory, in effect until 4:00 PM PST (NWS Reno NV), for parts of Greater Lake Tahoe Area. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Wind Advisory, in effect until 6:00 AM PST (NWS Hanford CA), for parts of Mojave Desert Slopes. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern and central California, Wed-Sun, Nov 11-15.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Moderate risk of heavy high elevation snow across the Klamath and the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Wed-Sun, Nov 11-15.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent over most of California and parts of southwestern Nevada and western Arizona, where enhanced moisture flow is most likely.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Beach Hazards Statement: 2 (CA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 2 (CA) · Lake Wind Advisory: 1 (CA) · Wind Advisory: 1 (CA)

What’s happening

• NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard says: “Partly cloudy skies today will turn mostly clear by Wednesday.” Source: Area Forecast Discussion — Los Angeles/Oxnard (opens in a new tab)
• NWS San Diego says: “Quiet weather with slightly below normal temperatures through Wednesday and gusty winds over the coastal waters.” Source: Area Forecast Discussion — San Diego (opens in a new tab)
• The U.S. Drought Monitor: “CA drought coverage, week of 2026-10-27: 27.88% none, D0 72.12%, D1 18.36%, D2 0.00%, D3 0.00%, D4 0.00%.” Source: U.S. Drought Monitor — CA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

No items for this region in this post.

Active NWS alerts: none in effect when this was generated.

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Flash Flood Warning, in effect until 3:00 PM MST (NWS Flagstaff AZ), for parts of Coconino, AZ. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 2:00 PM MST (NWS Phoenix AZ), for parts of Maricopa, AZ. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 12:45 AM MST (NWS Tucson AZ), for parts of Pima, AZ. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Moderate risk of heavy high elevation snow across the Klamath and the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Wed-Sun, Nov 11-15.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation across the West Coast and into parts of the Desert Southwest, Great Basin, and Southern Rockies, Wed-Tue, Nov 11-17.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Probabilities of above normal precipitation exceed 50 percent over most of California and parts of southwestern Nevada and western Arizona, where enhanced moisture flow is most likely.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 19 (AZ, NM, UT) · Flood Advisory: 6 (AZ, NM, UT) · Flash Flood Warning: 1 (AZ) · Lake Wind Advisory: 1 (NV)

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Flash Flood Warning, in effect until 3:30 PM CST (NWS Shreveport LA), for parts of Bossier, LA and Caddo, LA. Source: NWS active alerts — LA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 12:00 AM CST (NWS Lake Charles LA), for parts of Calcasieu, LA. Source: NWS active alerts — LA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Rip Current Statement, in effect until 6:00 PM CST (NWS Mobile AL), for parts of Mobile Coastal, Baldwin Coastal and Escambia Coastal. Source: NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

• The Weather Prediction Center says: “Following the frontal passage, surface high pressure should expand eastward from central U.S., promoting drier conditions across the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valley.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Special Weather Statement: 2 (TX, LA) · Flash Flood Warning: 1 (LA) · Flood Warning: 1 (LA) · Rip Current Statement: 1 (AL)

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL), for parts of DeSoto, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Melbourne FL), for parts of Lake, FL and Volusia, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Rip Current Statement, in effect until 4:00 AM EST (NWS Jacksonville FL), for parts of Coastal Flagler, Northeast Coastal St. Johns and Southeast Coastal St. Johns. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

No items for this region in this post.

Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 11 (FL) · Rip Current Statement: 11 (FL, GA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 6 (FL) · Coastal Flood Statement: 1 (FL)