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El Niño update, October 18: what to know
California: no NWS warnings are in effect as of 10:27 AM, Oct 18 Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.
NOAA’s current status
El Niño Advisory
ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)
What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
- CPC
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
- ONI
- The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
- NWS
- The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
- D0–D4
- The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.
Region by region
California and the Sierra
1 active alert
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 9:00 PM PDT (NWS San Francisco CA), for parts of San Francisco, Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- The NWS river forecast center in Sacramento says: “The main result is dry offshore winds across srn CA and widespread above normal temperatures region wide.” Source: CNRFC Hydrometeorological Discussion (opens in a new tab)
- The U.S. Drought Monitor: “CA drought coverage, week of 2026-10-13: 27.88% none, D0 72.12%, D1 23.26%, D2 0.00%, D3 0.00%, D4 0.00%.” Source: U.S. Drought Monitor — CA (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of central and northern California, and adjacent southern Oregon, Sun-Sat, Oct 25-31.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of high elevation heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Sun-Sat, Oct 25-31.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “Southern California/Southwest/Rockies Heavy Precipitation” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Beach Hazards Statement: 1 (CA)
Southern California
2 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 9:00 AM PDT (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County Coastal. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 9:00 AM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Ventura County Beaches, Malibu Coast and Los Angeles County Beaches. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard says: “A significant cool down is expected across southwest California through the middle part of the week.” Source: Area Forecast Discussion — Los Angeles/Oxnard (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “Southern California/Southwest/Rockies Heavy Precipitation” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Above-normal temperature chances are slightly increased across coastal southern California into extreme southern Arizona.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Beach Hazards Statement: 2 (CA)
The Southwest
No active alerts
What’s happening
- The U.S. Drought Monitor: “AZ drought coverage, week of 2026-10-13: 9.74% none, D0 90.26%, D1 46.35%, D2 14.12%, D3 0.00%, D4 0.00%.” Source: U.S. Drought Monitor — AZ (opens in a new tab)
- The U.S. Drought Monitor: “NM drought coverage, week of 2026-10-13: 2.37% none, D0 97.63%, D1 79.99%, D2 43.21%, D3 8.30%, D4 0.00%.” Source: U.S. Drought Monitor — NM (opens in a new tab)
- The U.S. Drought Monitor: “NV drought coverage, week of 2026-10-13: 0.00% none, D0 100.00%, D1 95.77%, D2 52.76%, D3 7.05%, D4 0.73%.” Source: U.S. Drought Monitor — NV (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of high elevation heavy snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Sun-Sat, Oct 25-31.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “A cutoff low will bring excessive rainfall concerns from Southern California to the Four Corners states mid-to-late week as well.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Above-normal temperature chances are slightly increased across coastal southern California into extreme southern Arizona.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: none in effect when this was generated.
The Gulf Coast
3 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Rip Current Statement, in effect until 6:00 AM CDT (NWS Mobile AL), for parts of Mobile Coastal, Baldwin Coastal and Escambia Coastal. Source: NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Advisory, in effect until 7:00 AM CDT (NWS Norman OK), for parts of Wichita, TX and Wilbarger, TX. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
- The U.S. Drought Monitor: “TX drought coverage, week of 2026-10-13: 4.95% none, D0 95.05%, D1 78.36%, D2 47.76%, D3 14.82%, D4 1.06%.” Source: U.S. Drought Monitor — TX (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Farther to the east, under the influence of ridging and surface high pressure, probabilities for below-normal precipitation are increased most of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Flood Advisory: 2 (TX) · Rip Current Statement: 1 (AL)
The Southeast
47 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Warning, in effect until 5:00 PM EDT (NWS Newport/Morehead City NC), for parts of Ocracoke Island. Source: NWS active alerts — NC (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Melbourne FL), for parts of Lake, FL and Volusia, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Jacksonville FL), for parts of Brantley, GA. Source: NWS active alerts — GA (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Troughing near Florida also pushes portions of the Southeast U.S. towards near- to below-normal temperatures.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: High Surf Advisory: 10 (FL, GA, NC) · Rip Current Statement: 10 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · Beach Hazards Statement: 7 (SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 6 (NC) · Wind Advisory: 5 (FL, NC) · Coastal Flood Warning: 2 (NC) · Flood Warning: 2 (FL, GA) · Lake Wind Advisory: 2 (GA, SC) · Coastal Flood Watch: 1 (NC) · High Wind Watch: 1 (NC) · Special Weather Statement: 1 (GA)
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Sources
24
- WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (PMDEPD) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 18, 2026, 12:46 AM PDT; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- CNRFC Hydrometeorological Discussion (HMDRSA) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 16, 2026, 6:51 AM PDT; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- Area Forecast Discussion — Los Angeles/Oxnard (AFDLOX) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 18, 2026, 7:16 AM PDT; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (PMDMRD) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 17, 2026, 12:02 PM PDT; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (PMDTHR) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 17, 2026, 11:01 AM PDT; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NM (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NV (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — UT (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — LA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — MS (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — GA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — SC (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NC (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- U.S. Drought Monitor — CA (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 12, 2026, 5:00 PM PDT; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- U.S. Drought Monitor — AZ (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 12, 2026, 5:00 PM PDT; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- U.S. Drought Monitor — NM (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 12, 2026, 5:00 PM PDT; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- U.S. Drought Monitor — NV (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 12, 2026, 5:00 PM PDT; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- U.S. Drought Monitor — TX (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 12, 2026, 5:00 PM PDT; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT
- CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 18, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT