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Daily El Niño update

El Niño update, October 9: what to know

California: Extreme Heat Warning and Red Flag Warning in effect as of 12:36 PM, Oct 9 Pacific, for parts of Death Valley National Park, Surprise Valley California and Eastern Lassen County. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.

NOAA’s current status

El Niño Advisory

ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)

What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
ONI
The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
NWS
The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
D0–D4
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.

Region by region

California and the Sierra

20 active alerts

What’s happening

  • Active NWS alert: Extreme Heat Warning, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Las Vegas NV), for parts of Death Valley National Park. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Extreme Heat Warning, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Phoenix AZ), for parts of Imperial County West and Imperial Valley. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Red Flag Warning, in effect until 9:00 PM PDT (NWS Reno NV), for parts of Southern Mono County, Northern Sierra Front - Carson City/Douglas/Storey/Southern Washoe/Eastern Lyon/Far Southern Lassen Counties and Southern Sierra Front - Alpine/Northern… Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Wind Advisory: 4 (CA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 3 (CA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 3 (CA) · Lake Wind Advisory: 3 (CA) · Red Flag Warning: 3 (CA) · Extreme Heat Warning: 2 (CA) · Flood Watch: 2 (CA)

Southern California

11 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Tropical Storm Watch: 4 (CA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 2 (CA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 2 (CA) · Extreme Heat Warning: 1 (CA) · Flood Watch: 1 (CA) · Tropical Cyclone Local Statement: 1 (CA)

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The Southwest

29 active alerts

What’s happening

  • Active NWS alert: Extreme Heat Warning, in effect until 9:00 PM MDT (NWS Phoenix AZ), for parts of Yuma. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Red Flag Warning, in effect until 10:00 PM MDT (NWS Reno NV), for parts of Southern Mono County, Northern Sierra Front - Carson City/Douglas/Storey/Southern Washoe/Eastern Lyon/Far Southern Lassen Counties and Southern Sierra Front - Alpine/Northern… Source: NWS active alerts — NV (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Red Flag Warning, in effect until 12:00 AM MDT (NWS Elko NV), for parts of Southeastern Humboldt County and northern Lander County. Source: NWS active alerts — NV (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Upper troughing will move into the West early next week, which will contain remnant moisture of Rachel and continue a flash flooding threat particularly for Arizona and Utah.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Wind Advisory: 11 (AZ, NV, UT) · Flood Watch: 5 (AZ, NV, UT) · Red Flag Warning: 5 (NV) · Hydrologic Outlook: 3 (NV, UT) · High Wind Watch: 2 (UT) · Lake Wind Advisory: 2 (NV) · Extreme Heat Warning: 1 (AZ)

The Gulf Coast

154 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Low temperatures may only fall into the 70s for several nights, with the combination yielding widespread Moderate HeatRisk and perhaps reaching Major over south Texas.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Tropical Storm Warning: 77 (LA, MS, AL) · Hurricane Warning: 12 (MS, AL) · Storm Surge Warning: 11 (LA, MS, AL) · Tropical Cyclone Local Statement: 11 (LA, MS, AL) · Air Quality Alert: 10 (TX) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 6 (TX, LA) · Flood Watch: 6 (MS, AL) · Rip Current Statement: 5 (TX, AL) · Flood Warning: 4 (AL) · Wind Advisory: 4 (LA, MS, AL) · High Wind Warning: 2 (AL) · Red Flag Warning: 2 (TX, LA) · High Surf Advisory: 1 (TX) · High Surf Warning: 1 (AL) · Hurricane Watch: 1 (MS) · Tornado Watch: 1 (AL)

The Southeast

153 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Meanwhile, upper ridging into the south- central to southeastern U.S. should allow for much above normal to record-setting warm temperatures in the 90s early next week, slowly moderating with time.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Tropical Storm Warning: 47 (FL, GA) · Flood Warning: 13 (FL, GA) · Flood Watch: 13 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · Hurricane Warning: 13 (FL) · Rip Current Statement: 13 (FL, GA, SC) · Storm Surge Warning: 11 (FL) · Wind Advisory: 8 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · Tropical Cyclone Local Statement: 7 (FL, GA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 6 (FL, SC) · Coastal Flood Statement: 4 (FL) · High Surf Advisory: 4 (FL, NC) · Tornado Watch: 3 (FL, GA) · High Surf Warning: 2 (FL) · High Wind Warning: 2 (GA, NC) · Lake Wind Advisory: 2 (SC) · Special Weather Statement: 2 (FL) · Coastal Flood Watch: 1 (SC) · Flood Advisory: 1 (FL) · Storm Surge Watch: 1 (FL)

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Sources

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