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Daily El Niño update

El Niño update, October 12: what to know

California: Freeze Warning in effect as of 3:11 PM, Oct 12 Pacific, for parts of Southern Trinity, Northwestern Interior Mendocino and Northeastern Interior Mendocino. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.

NOAA’s current status

El Niño Advisory

ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)

What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
ONI
The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
NWS
The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
D0–D4
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.

Region by region

California and the Sierra

11 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of episodic high winds from California through portions of the Great Basin, Rockies, Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley, Tue-Wed, Oct 20-21.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Meanwhile, the West Coast could see above normal temperatures, including some highs near and above 90 for parts of coastal California again by late week.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Beach Hazards Statement: 3 (CA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 3 (CA) · Frost Advisory: 2 (CA) · Flood Advisory: 1 (CA) · Freeze Warning: 1 (CA) · Freeze Watch: 1 (CA)

Southern California

10 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

No items for this region in this post.

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 6 (CA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 3 (CA) · High Surf Advisory: 1 (CA)

The Southwest

10 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Flood Watch: 3 (AZ, UT) · Winter Weather Advisory: 3 (NV, UT) · Flood Advisory: 2 (NV) · Freeze Warning: 1 (NV) · Hydrologic Outlook: 1 (UT)

The Gulf Coast

5 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

No items for this region in this post.

Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 3 (TX, LA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (TX) · Rip Current Statement: 1 (TX)

The Southeast

14 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 9 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Statement: 2 (FL) · Flood Advisory: 2 (SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (FL)

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