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El Niño update, October 12: what to know
California: Freeze Warning in effect as of 3:11 PM, Oct 12 Pacific, for parts of Southern Trinity, Northwestern Interior Mendocino and Northeastern Interior Mendocino. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.
NOAA’s current status
El Niño Advisory
ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)
What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
- CPC
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
- ONI
- The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
- NWS
- The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
- D0–D4
- The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.
Region by region
California and the Sierra
11 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Freeze Warning, in effect until 8:00 AM PDT (NWS Eureka CA), for parts of Southern Trinity, Northwestern Interior Mendocino and Northeastern Interior Mendocino. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Freeze Watch, in effect until 10:00 AM PDT (NWS Las Vegas NV), for parts of Owens Valley North. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 10:00 PM PDT (NWS San Francisco CA), for parts of Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of episodic high winds from California through portions of the Great Basin, Rockies, Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley, Tue-Wed, Oct 20-21.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “Meanwhile, the West Coast could see above normal temperatures, including some highs near and above 90 for parts of coastal California again by late week.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Beach Hazards Statement: 3 (CA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 3 (CA) · Frost Advisory: 2 (CA) · Flood Advisory: 1 (CA) · Freeze Warning: 1 (CA) · Freeze Watch: 1 (CA)
Southern California
10 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 5:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Malibu Coast and Los Angeles County Beaches. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 2:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Ventura County Beaches. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 2:00 PM PDT (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County Coastal. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
No items for this region in this post.
Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 6 (CA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 3 (CA) · High Surf Advisory: 1 (CA)
The Southwest
10 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Freeze Warning, in effect until 11:00 AM MDT (NWS Las Vegas NV), for parts of Esmeralda and Central Nye County. Source: NWS active alerts — NV (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Watch, in effect until 6:00 PM MDT (NWS Flagstaff AZ), for parts of Kaibab Plateau, Marble and Glen Canyons and Grand Canyon Country. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Watch, in effect until 6:00 PM MDT (NWS Salt Lake City UT), for parts of Great Salt Lake Desert and Mountains, Tooele and Rush Valleys and Eastern Box Elder County. Source: NWS active alerts — UT (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Chances for above normal exceed 50% across the Four Corners region and into the Southern Plains.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Flood Watch: 3 (AZ, UT) · Winter Weather Advisory: 3 (NV, UT) · Flood Advisory: 2 (NV) · Freeze Warning: 1 (NV) · Hydrologic Outlook: 1 (UT)
The Gulf Coast
5 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Lake Charles LA), for parts of Hardin, TX, Jasper, TX and Jefferson, TX. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Rip Current Statement, in effect until 7:00 PM CDT (NWS Houston/Galveston TX), for parts of Matagorda Islands, Brazoria Islands and Galveston Island. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 1:00 AM CDT (NWS Corpus Christi TX), for parts of Coastal Aransas, Coastal Kleberg and Coastal Nueces. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
No items for this region in this post.
Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 3 (TX, LA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (TX) · Rip Current Statement: 1 (TX)
The Southeast
14 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Melbourne FL), for parts of Lake, FL and Volusia, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL), for parts of Sarasota, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 5:00 PM EDT (NWS Mobile AL), for parts of Okaloosa, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “Showers and storms are possible in Florida, with amounts potentially increasing by the weekend with the front passing through.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 9 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Statement: 2 (FL) · Flood Advisory: 2 (SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (FL)
Sources
17
- WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (PMDEPD) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 12, 2026, 12:18 PM PDT; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (PMDMRD) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 12, 2026, 12:02 PM PDT; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (PMDTHR) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 12, 2026, 11:10 AM PDT; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NM (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NV (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — UT (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — LA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — MS (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — GA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — SC (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NC (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT
- CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 12, 2026, 3:11 PM PDT