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El Niño update, October 13: what to know
California: Freeze Warning in effect as of 1:18 PM, Oct 13 Pacific, for parts of Owens Valley North. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.
NOAA’s current status
El Niño Advisory
ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)
What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
- CPC
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
- ONI
- The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
- NWS
- The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
- D0–D4
- The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.
Region by region
California and the Sierra
5 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Freeze Warning, in effect until 8:00 AM PDT (NWS Las Vegas NV), for parts of Owens Valley North. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Fire Weather Watch, in effect until 10:00 PM PDT (NWS Hanford CA), for parts of Tehachapi Area and Fort Tejon. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 4:00 PM PDT (NWS San Francisco CA), for parts of North Bay Interior Valleys. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “Meanwhile, above normal temperatures will return for much of the West by late week, including some highs near and above 90 for parts of coastal California.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 2 (CA) · Fire Weather Watch: 1 (CA) · Freeze Warning: 1 (CA) · Frost Advisory: 1 (CA)
Southern California
19 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Fire Weather Watch, in effect until 10:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area, Eastern Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area and Santa Susana Mountains. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: High Wind Watch, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Western Santa Monica Mountains Recreational Area, Santa Susana Mountains and Interstate 5 Corridor. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: High Wind Watch, in effect until 12:00 AM PDT (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Diego County Inland Valleys and San Diego County Mountains. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
No items for this region in this post.
Active NWS alerts: High Wind Watch: 5 (CA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 4 (CA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 3 (CA) · Heat Advisory: 3 (CA) · Fire Weather Watch: 2 (CA) · Wind Advisory: 2 (CA)
The Southwest
9 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Freeze Warning, in effect until 9:00 AM MDT (NWS Las Vegas NV), for parts of Lincoln County. Source: NWS active alerts — NV (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Freeze Warning, in effect until 9:00 AM MDT (NWS Salt Lake City UT), for parts of Eastern Box Elder County, Western Millard and Juab Counties and Eastern Juab/Millard Counties. Source: NWS active alerts — UT (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Freeze Watch, in effect until 9:00 AM MDT (NWS Albuquerque NM), for parts of Upper Rio Grande Valley. Source: NWS active alerts — NM (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “This helps to force strong precipitation chances across much of the western and central CONUS with chances exceeding 60% for parts of the Great Basin, Four Corners, and into the Southern Plains.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Winter Weather Advisory: 3 (NV, UT) · Freeze Warning: 2 (NV, UT) · High Wind Watch: 2 (NM) · Freeze Watch: 1 (NM) · Wind Advisory: 1 (AZ)
The Gulf Coast
7 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Flood Watch, in effect until 1:00 AM CDT (NWS Lubbock TX), for parts of Hall, Childress and Motley. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Watch, in effect until 7:00 AM CDT (NWS Midland/Odessa TX), for parts of Gaines, Dawson and Borden. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Watch, in effect until 1:00 PM CDT (NWS Norman OK), for parts of Woods, Alfalfa and Grant. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
No items for this region in this post.
Active NWS alerts: Flood Watch: 4 (TX) · Air Quality Alert: 1 (AL) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (TX) · High Wind Watch: 1 (TX)
The Southeast
8 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Melbourne FL), for parts of Lake, FL and Volusia, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 2:00 PM EDT (NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL), for parts of Sarasota, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 12:00 AM EDT (NWS Mobile AL), for parts of Okaloosa, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “Showers and storms are possible in Florida, with rainfall amounts potentially increasing by the weekend given persistent onshore flow in the wake of the front.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 6 (FL, GA, SC) · Coastal Flood Statement: 1 (FL) · Flood Advisory: 1 (SC)
Sources
16
- WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (PMDEPD) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 13, 2026, 11:55 AM PDT; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (PMDMRD) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 13, 2026, 12:02 PM PDT; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NM (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NV (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — UT (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — LA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — MS (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — GA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — SC (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NC (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT
- CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 13, 2026, 1:18 PM PDT