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Daily El Niño update

El Niño update, October 17: what to know

California: Red Flag Warning and High Wind Warning in effect as of 10:24 AM, Oct 17 Pacific, for parts of Santa Clarita Valley, Ventura County Beaches and Ventura County Inland Coast. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.

NOAA’s current status

El Niño Advisory

ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)

What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
ONI
The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
NWS
The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
D0–D4
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.

Region by region

California and the Sierra

1 active alert

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Some high elevation snowfall can’t be ruled out for parts of the Intermountain West and Sierra Nevada mid-week.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “There is better agreement compared to yesterday regarding renewed troughing developing near or off the California Coast by day-10 resulting in near-normal heights for the period as a whole over the western third of the CONUS. A…” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Beach Hazards Statement: 1 (CA)

Southern California

17 active alerts

What’s happening

  • Active NWS alert: High Wind Warning, in effect until 12:00 AM PDT (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Red Flag Warning, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Santa Clarita Valley, Ventura County Beaches and Ventura County Inland Coast. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Heat Advisory, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of San Luis Obispo County Beaches, San Luis Obispo County Inland Central Coast and Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: High Wind Warning: 6 (CA) · Heat Advisory: 4 (CA) · Wind Advisory: 4 (CA) · Red Flag Warning: 2 (CA) · Air Quality Alert: 1 (CA)

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The Southwest

4 active alerts

What’s happening

  • Active NWS alert: Wind Advisory, in effect until 3:00 PM MDT (NWS Tucson AZ), for parts of Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys including Nogales, Tucson Metro Area including Tucson/Green Valley/Marana/Vail and South Central Pinal County including Eloy/Picacho Peak State… Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Wind Advisory, in effect until 12:00 PM MDT (NWS Phoenix AZ), for parts of Rio Verde/Salt River, Superior and Northwest Pinal County. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
  • The U.S. Drought Monitor: “AZ drought coverage, week of 2026-10-13: 9.74% none, D0 90.26%, D1 46.35%, D2 14.12%, D3 0.00%, D4 0.00%.” Source: U.S. Drought Monitor — AZ (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Wind Advisory: 4 (AZ)

The Gulf Coast

20 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Farther to the east, under the influence of ridging and surface high pressure, probabilities for below-normal precipitation are increased across the Northeast, Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and extending south to the Gulf Coast.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Red Flag Warning: 6 (TX, LA, MS) · Wind Advisory: 5 (TX, LA, MS, AL) · Rip Current Statement: 3 (TX, AL) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 2 (TX) · Flood Warning: 2 (TX) · Flood Advisory: 1 (TX) · High Surf Advisory: 1 (TX)

The Southeast

49 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: High Surf Advisory: 9 (FL, GA, NC) · Wind Advisory: 8 (FL, NC) · Rip Current Statement: 7 (FL, GA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 5 (SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 4 (NC) · Flood Warning: 3 (FL, GA) · Frost Advisory: 3 (GA, SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Warning: 2 (NC) · Freeze Warning: 2 (NC) · Lake Wind Advisory: 2 (GA, SC) · Coastal Flood Watch: 1 (NC) · Flood Advisory: 1 (FL) · High Wind Watch: 1 (NC) · Special Weather Statement: 1 (GA, SC)

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