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El Niño update, October 23: what to know
California: Coastal Flood Warning and Freeze Warning in effect as of 11:33 AM, Oct 23 Pacific, for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas, Orange County Coastal and Southern Trinity. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.
NOAA’s current status
El Niño Advisory
ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)
What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
- CPC
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
- ONI
- The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
- NWS
- The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
- D0–D4
- The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.
Region by region
California and the Sierra
6 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Freeze Warning, in effect until 9:00 AM PDT (NWS Eureka CA), for parts of Southern Trinity, Northwestern Interior Mendocino and Northeastern Interior Mendocino. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Lake Wind Advisory, in effect until 8:00 AM PDT (NWS Reno NV), for parts of Greater Lake Tahoe Area. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Wind Advisory, in effect until 11:00 AM PDT (NWS Las Vegas NV), for parts of Death Valley National Park. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the southern California coast, Sat-Mon, Oct 31-Nov 2.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for portions of Northern and Central California and southern Oregon, Sat-Thu, Oct 31-Nov 5.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Above normal temperatures are favored for the Southern California coast, the Southwest, and the Central and Southern Rockies, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS temperature forecasts.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Frost Advisory: 3 (CA) · Freeze Warning: 1 (CA) · Lake Wind Advisory: 1 (CA) · Wind Advisory: 1 (CA)
Southern California
1 active alert
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Warning, in effect until 1:00 PM PDT (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County Coastal. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard says: “A relatively quiet Friday will transition into a weak Santa Ana Wind event this weekend, bringing drier conditions and warmer temperatures to the region into next week.” Source: Area Forecast Discussion — Los Angeles/Oxnard (opens in a new tab)
- NWS San Diego says: “Scattered mostly light showers will continue through this morning, decrease this afternoon, and end from the northwest tonight.” Source: Area Forecast Discussion — San Diego (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the southern California coast, Sat-Mon, Oct 31-Nov 2.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Above normal temperatures are favored for the Southern California coast, the Southwest, and the Central and Southern Rockies, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS temperature forecasts.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Warning: 1 (CA)
The Southwest
26 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 4:00 AM MDT (NWS Flagstaff AZ), for parts of Coconino, AZ and Navajo, AZ. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 1:00 PM MDT (NWS Albuquerque NM), for parts of San Juan, NM. Source: NWS active alerts — NM (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 6:15 PM MDT (NWS Grand Junction CO), for parts of Mesa, CO, Montrose, CO and Grand, UT. Source: NWS active alerts — UT (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of Arizona, Sun-Mon, Nov 1-2.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for southern portions of the Four Corners, Sat-Mon, Oct 31-Nov 2.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Above normal temperatures are favored for the Southern California coast, the Southwest, and the Central and Southern Rockies, consistent with the consolidation of calibrated ECMWF and GEFS temperature forecasts.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 15 (AZ, NM, UT) · Flood Watch: 6 (NM, UT) · Flood Advisory: 4 (NM) · Lake Wind Advisory: 1 (NV)
The Gulf Coast
5 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Flood Watch, in effect until 7:00 AM CDT (NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM), for parts of Otero Mesa, West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands and East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Rip Current Statement, in effect until 7:00 PM CDT (NWS Mobile AL), for parts of Mobile Coastal, Baldwin Coastal and Escambia Coastal. Source: NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Special Weather Statement, in effect until 4:15 AM CDT (NWS New Orleans LA), for parts of Pointe Coupee, West Feliciana and East Feliciana. Sources: NWS active alerts — LA (opens in a new tab) NWS active alerts — MS (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Lower and Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Southern Plains, and Southeast, Fri-Mon, Oct 30-Nov 2.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “Highs in the 70s are forecast as far north as the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Air Quality Alert: 2 (TX) · Flood Watch: 1 (TX) · Rip Current Statement: 1 (AL) · Special Weather Statement: 1 (LA, MS)
The Southeast
35 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Warning, in effect until 5:00 AM EDT (NWS Key West FL), for parts of Monroe Upper Keys. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Melbourne FL), for parts of Lake, FL and Volusia, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 2:00 AM EDT (NWS Jacksonville FL), for parts of Brantley, GA. Source: NWS active alerts — GA (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of high winds for portions of Florida, Southeast, and southern Mid-Atlantic, Fri-Sat, Oct 30-Nov 1.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “Additionally, showers and thunderstorms could affect at least the east coast of Florida in easterly flow behind a stalled front farther south.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 13 (FL, SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Watch: 7 (FL, GA) · Rip Current Statement: 7 (FL, GA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 2 (NC) · Flood Warning: 2 (FL, GA) · Special Weather Statement: 2 (FL, GA) · Coastal Flood Warning: 1 (FL) · High Surf Advisory: 1 (FL)
Check your address
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Sources
19
- WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (PMDEPD) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 23, 2026, 12:39 AM PDT; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- Area Forecast Discussion — Los Angeles/Oxnard (AFDLOX) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 23, 2026, 10:12 AM PDT; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- Area Forecast Discussion — San Diego (AFDSGX) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 23, 2026, 11:16 AM PDT; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (PMDMRD) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 22, 2026, 12:03 PM PDT; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (PMDTHR) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 22, 2026, 11:42 AM PDT; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NM (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NV (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — UT (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — LA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — MS (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — GA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — SC (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NC (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT
- CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 23, 2026, 11:33 AM PDT