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El Niño update, October 26: what to know
California: Coastal Flood Warning in effect as of 1:03 PM, Oct 26 Pacific, for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County Coastal. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.
NOAA’s current status
El Niño Advisory
ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)
What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
- CPC
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
- ONI
- The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
- NWS
- The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
- D0–D4
- The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.
Region by region
California and the Sierra
6 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Lake Wind Advisory, in effect until 6:00 PM PDT (NWS Reno NV), for parts of Lassen-Eastern Plumas-Eastern Sierra Counties. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 2:00 PM PDT (NWS Eureka CA), for parts of Northern Coastal Humboldt. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 3:00 PM PDT (NWS San Francisco CA), for parts of San Francisco, North Bay Interior Valleys and San Francisco Bay Shoreline. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of southwestern Oregon and northwestern California, Fri-Sun, Nov 6-8.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Moderate risk of heavy snow for portions of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades, Fri-Sun, Nov 6-8.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “At the surface, an unusually far south (~25N latitude) non-tropical low will move east through the Pacific into southern California/northern Mexico and bring an atmospheric river with it.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 3 (CA) · Lake Wind Advisory: 3 (CA)
Southern California
3 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Warning, in effect until 1:00 PM PDT (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County Coastal. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 1:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of San Luis Obispo County Beaches, Santa Barbara County Central Coast Beaches and Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
- NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard says: “Dry and warm conditions will continue through the first half of this week.” Source: Area Forecast Discussion — Los Angeles/Oxnard (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “At the surface, an unusually far south (~25N latitude) non-tropical low will move east through the Pacific into southern California/northern Mexico and bring an atmospheric river with it.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 2 (CA) · Coastal Flood Warning: 1 (CA)
The Southwest
11 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Flash Flood Warning, in effect until 5:00 PM MDT (NWS Albuquerque NM), for parts of Chaves, NM. Source: NWS active alerts — NM (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flash Flood Warning, in effect until 2:30 PM MDT (NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM), for parts of Otero, NM. Source: NWS active alerts — NM (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 12:00 AM MDT (NWS Albuquerque NM), for parts of Socorro, NM. Source: NWS active alerts — NM (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Moderate risk of heavy snow for portions of the northern Sierra Nevada and southern Cascades, Fri-Sun, Nov 6-8.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy snow for the Cascades, Klamath and northern Sierra Nevada ranges, Thu-Mon, Nov 5-9.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “The greatest chances for above normal precipitation range from 70-80 percent are forecast over most of Arizona.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 5 (NM, UT) · Lake Wind Advisory: 3 (NV) · Flash Flood Warning: 2 (NM) · Severe Thunderstorm Warning: 1 (NM)
The Gulf Coast
6 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 9:00 AM CDT (NWS Midland/Odessa TX), for parts of Presidio, TX. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Rip Current Statement, in effect until 6:00 PM CDT (NWS Mobile AL), for parts of Mobile Coastal, Baldwin Coastal and Escambia Coastal. Source: NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 4:00 AM CDT (NWS Corpus Christi TX), for parts of Aransas Islands, Kleberg Islands and Nueces Islands. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Central Plains, Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Great Lakes, Tue-Wed, Nov 3-4.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “Heavy rainfall likely for portions of Texas especially on Thursday” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
- NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Over the CONUS, near normal precipitation now covers parts of northeastern Montana, southeastern Arizona, southwestern New Mexico, and portions of western Texas, with the overwhelming majority of the Lower 48 states favored to have above…” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (TX) · Coastal Flood Statement: 1 (TX) · Flood Advisory: 1 (TX) · Flood Warning: 1 (TX) · Local Area Emergency: 1 (LA) · Rip Current Statement: 1 (AL)
The Southeast
37 active alerts
What’s happening
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Warning, in effect until 5:00 AM EDT (NWS Key West FL), for parts of Monroe Upper Keys. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Warning, in effect until 2:00 AM EDT (NWS Jacksonville FL), for parts of Inland Flagler, Eastern Clay and Eastern Putnam. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
- Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Warning, in effect until 2:00 AM EDT (NWS Melbourne FL), for parts of Coastal Volusia, Coastal Indian River and Coastal St. Lucie. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
What to watch for
- The Weather Prediction Center says: “This rainy and stormy pattern will move east across the southeastern U.S. into the weekend.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
Active NWS alerts: Rip Current Statement: 9 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 8 (FL, GA, NC) · Coastal Flood Warning: 7 (FL, GA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 5 (SC, NC) · High Surf Advisory: 4 (FL, GA) · Wind Advisory: 3 (FL) · Flood Warning: 1 (FL)
Check your address
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Sources
18
- WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (PMDEPD) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 26, 2026, 12:20 PM PDT; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- Area Forecast Discussion — Los Angeles/Oxnard (AFDLOX) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 26, 2026, 10:27 AM PDT; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (PMDMRD) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 26, 2026, 12:02 PM PDT; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (PMDTHR) (opens in a new tab)Issued Oct 26, 2026, 11:04 AM PDT; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NM (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NV (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — UT (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — LA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — MS (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — GA (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — SC (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- NWS active alerts — NC (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT
- CPC ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (opens in a new tab)Issue time not listed; fetched Oct 26, 2026, 1:03 PM PDT