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Daily El Niño update

El Niño update, October 24: what to know

California: Coastal Flood Warning in effect as of 10:31 AM, Oct 24 Pacific, for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County Coastal. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.

NOAA’s current status

El Niño Advisory

ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)

What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
ONI
The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
NWS
The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
D0–D4
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.

Region by region

California and the Sierra

4 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for coastal portions of central and southern California, Sat-Mon, Oct 31-Nov 2.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for coastal portions of Northern California and southwestern Oregon, Mon-Fri, Nov 2-6.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Broadening and deepening upper troughing across the West could bring precipitation into California and the Great Basin into the Four Corners states, but the details are yet to be determined.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 2 (CA) · Dense Fog Advisory: 1 (CA) · Wind Advisory: 1 (CA)

Southern California

2 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for coastal portions of central and southern California, Sat-Mon, Oct 31-Nov 2.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “The greatest chances for above normal precipitation range from 70-80 percent from extreme southern California eastward across most of the Lower Four Corners region, and western portions of Texas.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (CA) · Coastal Flood Warning: 1 (CA)

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The Southwest

22 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 11 (AZ, NM, UT) · Flood Watch: 6 (NM, UT) · Flood Advisory: 5 (NM)

The Gulf Coast

3 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Lower and Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Southern Plains, and Southeast, Sat-Wed, Oct 31-Nov 4.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Highs in the 70s are forecast as far north as the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Wetter-than-normal conditions are favored from California eastward and northeastward across the central and southern Rockies, most of the Plains and Mississippi Valley, and remaining areas east of the Mississippi River except for New…” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Flood Watch: 1 (TX) · Rip Current Statement: 1 (AL) · Special Weather Statement: 1 (LA, MS)

The Southeast

63 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 20 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · Rip Current Statement: 11 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · High Surf Advisory: 10 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Warning: 8 (FL, GA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 6 (SC, NC) · Wind Advisory: 3 (FL, GA) · Coastal Flood Watch: 2 (FL) · Flood Warning: 2 (FL, GA) · Lake Wind Advisory: 1 (SC)

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Sources

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