El Niño update, October 5: what to know

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Extreme Heat Warning, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Las Vegas NV), for parts of Death Valley National Park. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Extreme Heat Watch, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Phoenix AZ), for parts of Imperial County West and Imperial Valley. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Heat Advisory, in effect until 11:00 PM PDT (NWS Eureka CA), for parts of Northwestern Interior Mendocino, Northeastern Interior Mendocino and Southwestern Interior Mendocino. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

• The Weather Prediction Center says: “Heat wave in California begins to weaken on Thursday” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Heat Advisory: 4 (CA) · Extreme Heat Warning: 1 (CA) · Extreme Heat Watch: 1 (CA)

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Extreme Heat Warning, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Extreme Heat Warning, in effect until 8:00 PM PDT (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Catalina and Santa Barbara Islands, Santa Clarita Valley and Ventura County Beaches. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 11:00 PM PDT (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County Coastal. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

No items for this region in this post.

Active NWS alerts: Extreme Heat Warning: 8 (CA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 2 (CA) · Heat Advisory: 2 (CA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (CA)

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Extreme Heat Watch, in effect until 9:00 PM MDT (NWS Phoenix AZ), for parts of Yuma. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
• The Weather Prediction Center says: “There will also be the chance for isolated thunderstorms both Tuesday and Wednesday across the Great Basin and Four Corners region as a weak upper-level low progresses through the region.” Source: WPC Short Range Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
• The U.S. Drought Monitor: “AZ drought coverage, week of 2026-09-29: 9.74% none, D0 90.26%, D1 63.33%, D2 24.11%, D3 1.84%, D4 0.00%.” Source: U.S. Drought Monitor — AZ (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

No items for this region in this post.

Active NWS alerts: Extreme Heat Watch: 1 (AZ)

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Flood Watch, in effect until 7:00 PM CDT (NWS Tallahassee FL), for parts of Geneva, Houston and North Walton. Source: NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Rip Current Statement, in effect until 7:00 PM CDT (NWS Brownsville TX), for parts of Kenedy Island, Willacy Island and Cameron Island. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Rip Current Statement, in effect until 7:00 PM CDT (NWS Mobile AL), for parts of Mobile Coastal, Baldwin Coastal and Escambia Coastal. Source: NWS active alerts — AL (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of episodic heavy precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Gulf Coast, and Southeast including the Carolinas, Tue-Wed, Oct 13-14.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of periods of high winds for most of the Gulf Coast, Tue-Sat, Oct 13-17.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
• The Weather Prediction Center says: “Excessive rainfall/flash flood threat continues for Central Gulf Coast and Southeast through this weekend” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Rip Current Statement: 2 (TX, AL) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (TX) · Flood Watch: 1 (AL)

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Flash Flood Warning, in effect until 7:30 PM EDT (NWS Jacksonville FL), for parts of Clay, FL, Putnam, FL and St. Johns, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Flash Flood Warning, in effect until 7:45 PM EDT (NWS Tallahassee FL), for parts of Gadsden, FL, Decatur, GA and Seminole, GA. Sources: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab) NWS active alerts — GA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Jacksonville FL), for parts of Baker, FL, Nassau, FL and Charlton, GA. Sources: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab) NWS active alerts — GA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of episodic heavy precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Gulf Coast, and Southeast including the Carolinas, Tue-Wed, Oct 13-14.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
• The Weather Prediction Center says: “Deep tropical moisture will continue to interact with the boundary, leading to showers and thunderstorm development across the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Florida through this weekend.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Probabilities exceed 50 percent for parts of the Southeast where signals are greatest.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Flood Advisory: 7 (FL, GA) · Rip Current Statement: 5 (FL, GA, SC) · Flash Flood Warning: 4 (FL, GA) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 3 (FL, GA) · Flood Warning: 2 (FL, GA) · Flood Watch: 2 (FL, GA) · Coastal Flood Statement: 1 (FL)