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Daily El Niño update

El Niño update, October 25: what to know

California: Coastal Flood Warning in effect as of 10:44 AM, Oct 25 Pacific, for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas and Orange County Coastal. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.

NOAA’s current status

El Niño Advisory

ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)

What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
ONI
The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
NWS
The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
D0–D4
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.

Region by region

California and the Sierra

2 active alerts

What’s happening

  • Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 3:00 PM PDT (NWS San Francisco CA), for parts of Coastal North Bay Including Point Reyes National Seashore and San Francisco Peninsula Coast. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
  • The NWS river forecast center in Sacramento says: “Surface analysis has a cold front through central CA nw NV into ID as well with showers on radar along I-80 over nrn NV. A few convective showers offshore of srn CA can be seen on radar as well.” Source: CNRFC Hydrometeorological Discussion (opens in a new tab)
  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “An upper-level low over Southern California and the Southwest will weaken and move northeastward to the Northern Plains by Tuesday.” Source: WPC Short Range Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 2 (CA)

Southern California

2 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 1 (CA) · Coastal Flood Warning: 1 (CA)

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The Southwest

15 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 10 (AZ, NM, UT) · Flood Advisory: 3 (NM) · Flood Watch: 2 (NM, UT)

The Gulf Coast

2 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of the Lower and Middle Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys, Southern Plains, and Southeast, Sun-Thu, Nov 1-4.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Precipitation looks to focus across the Northwest Wednesday-Thursday, and meanwhile tropical moisture will spread into south-central Texas for potentially heavy rainfall.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “The greatest chances for above normal precipitation range from 70-80 percent from extreme southern California eastward across most of the Lower Four Corners region, and western portions of Texas.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Rip Current Statement: 1 (AL) · Special Weather Statement: 1 (LA, MS)

The Southeast

53 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 16 (FL, SC, NC) · Rip Current Statement: 12 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · High Surf Advisory: 9 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Warning: 7 (FL, GA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 6 (SC, NC) · Wind Advisory: 2 (FL, GA) · Flood Warning: 1 (FL)

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Sources

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