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Daily El Niño update

El Niño update, October 20: what to know

California: no NWS warnings are in effect as of 11:35 AM, Oct 20 Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.

NOAA’s current status

El Niño Advisory

ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)

What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
ONI
The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
NWS
The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
D0–D4
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.

Region by region

California and the Sierra

No active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: none in effect when this was generated.

Southern California

2 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Beach Hazards Statement: 2 (CA)

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The Southwest

10 active alerts

What’s happening

  • Active NWS alert: Flood Watch, in effect until 6:00 PM MDT (NWS Las Vegas NV), for parts of Northwest Plateau. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Flood Watch, in effect until 11:00 PM MDT (NWS Tucson AZ), for parts of Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys including Clifton/Safford, White Mountains of Graham and Greenlee Counties including Hannagan Meadow and Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains including… Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
  • Active NWS alert: Flood Watch, in effect until 12:00 AM MDT (NWS Flagstaff AZ), for parts of Kaibab Plateau, Marble and Glen Canyons and Grand Canyon Country. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Moderate risk of heavy precipitation for portions of Arizona, Fri-Sun, Oct 30-Nov 1.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for southern portions of the Four Corners and western Texas, Fri-Sun, Oct 30-Nov 1.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Therefore, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the New Mexico into western Texas continues for Friday, while a Slight Risk is introduced for Saturday across portions of New Mexico and Texas into the central Plains.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Flood Watch: 10 (AZ, UT)

The Gulf Coast

No active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for southern portions of the Four Corners and western Texas, Fri-Sun, Oct 30-Nov 1.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Therefore, a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall for portions of the New Mexico into western Texas continues for Friday, while a Slight Risk is introduced for Saturday across portions of New Mexico and Texas into the central Plains.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Farther to the east, under the influence of ridging and surface high pressure, probabilities for below-normal precipitation are increased over most of the CONUS east of the Mississippi River.” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: none in effect when this was generated.

The Southeast

39 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: High Surf Advisory: 10 (FL, NC) · Rip Current Statement: 9 (FL, GA, NC) · Beach Hazards Statement: 6 (SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 5 (FL, NC) · Special Weather Statement: 3 (GA) · Coastal Flood Warning: 2 (NC) · Flood Warning: 2 (FL, GA) · Coastal Flood Statement: 1 (FL) · Wind Advisory: 1 (NC)

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Sources

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