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Daily El Niño update

El Niño update, October 19: what to know

California: no NWS warnings are in effect as of 1:02 PM, Oct 19 Pacific. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center ENSO status: El Niño Advisory.

NOAA’s current status

El Niño Advisory

ONI +2.2 °C (JAS 2026) · next CPC update November 12, 2026 · CPC discussion (opens in a new tab)

What CPC, ONI, NWS and D0–D4 mean
CPC
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, which sets the El Niño and La Niña status (Watch, Advisory) once a month.
ONI
The Oceanic Niño Index: how much warmer (+) or cooler (−) than normal the surface of the central Pacific Ocean was over three months. The letters are the months, so JJA is June, July and August. El Niño conditions are +0.5 °C or warmer.
NWS
The National Weather Service, which issues the weather watches, warnings and advisories for your area.
D0–D4
The U.S. Drought Monitor’s levels: D0 abnormally dry, D1 moderate drought, D2 severe, D3 extreme and D4 exceptional drought. Each percentage is the share of the state at that level or worse.

Region by region

California and the Sierra

No active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: none in effect when this was generated.

Southern California

2 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Meanwhile, a cutoff low will support heavy rainfall from Southern California through the Great Basin/Rockies states mid-later week along with some mountain snows.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Beach Hazards Statement: 2 (CA)

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The Southwest

No active alerts

What’s happening

  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies on Wednesday” Source: WPC Short Range Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Afternoon heating combined with unseasonably high moisture for mid-October (PWATs 0.75-1.0”, 2-2.5 standard deviations above the mean) will lead to sufficient instability (~1000 J/KG CAPE) over southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico…“ Source: WPC Excessive Rainfall Discussion (opens in a new tab)
  • The Storm Prediction Center says: “Thunderstorms may produce isolated marginally severe hail and gusty winds this afternoon and early evening across parts of southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico.” Source: SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for the Four Corners region and far western Texas, Thu-Sat, Oct 29-31.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
  • The Weather Prediction Center says: “Accordingly, there’s a slight risk (at least 15% chance) of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding for portions of the Four Corners region, with a signal for heavy precipitation over the San Juan Mountains as well as the general…” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: none in effect when this was generated.

The Gulf Coast

2 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Flood Advisory: 1 (TX) · Rip Current Statement: 1 (AL)

The Southeast

51 active alerts

What’s happening

What to watch for

Active NWS alerts: Rip Current Statement: 15 (FL, GA, SC, NC) · High Surf Advisory: 13 (FL, GA, NC) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 8 (FL, NC) · Beach Hazards Statement: 7 (SC, NC) · Coastal Flood Warning: 2 (NC) · Flood Warning: 2 (FL, GA) · Special Weather Statement: 2 (GA) · Coastal Flood Statement: 1 (FL) · Wind Advisory: 1 (NC)

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Sources

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