El Niño update, November 9: what to know

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 10:00 PM PST (NWS San Francisco CA), for parts of San Francisco. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 4:00 PM PST (NWS San Francisco CA), for parts of Southern Monterey Bay and Big Sur Coast. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
• The NWS river forecast center in Sacramento says: “Radar reflectivity continues to show light-to-moderate shower activity spreading inland over Humboldt, Del Norte, Siskiyou, and Trinity counties in northern California.” Source: CNRFC Hydrometeorological Discussion (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy snow for higher elevations of the Klamath, Sierra Nevada, and Wasatch Mountains along with Colorado Rockies, Tue-Mon, Nov 17-23.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of Arizona, California, and southwestern Oregon, Tue-Mon, Nov 17-23.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
• The Weather Prediction Center says: “A more organized storm system is likely to affect more of the West Coast going into Sunday and early next week, with heavier rainfall and high mountain snow reaching farther south into northern California and including the Sierra.” Source: WPC Extended Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 4 (CA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 3 (CA)

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 10:00 PM PST (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Beach Hazards Statement, in effect until 12:00 PM PST (NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard CA), for parts of Santa Barbara County Southwestern Coast and Santa Barbara County Southeastern Coast. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Coastal Flood Advisory, in effect until 12:00 PM PST (NWS San Diego CA), for parts of San Diego County Coastal Areas. Source: NWS active alerts — CA (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

No items for this region in this post.

Active NWS alerts: Coastal Flood Advisory: 6 (CA) · High Surf Advisory: 3 (CA) · Beach Hazards Statement: 2 (CA)

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 11:00 AM MST (NWS Phoenix AZ), for parts of Maricopa, AZ. Source: NWS active alerts — AZ (opens in a new tab)
• The Weather Prediction Center says: “Forecast highs are generally in the 50s and 60s across the northern tier, the 60s and 70s across the southern tier, and into the 80s for southern California/the Desert Southwest as well as Florida.” Source: WPC Short Range Forecast Discussion (opens in a new tab)
• The U.S. Drought Monitor: “AZ drought coverage, week of 2026-11-03: 62.94% none, D0 37.06%, D1 11.92%, D2 1.75%, D3 0.00%, D4 0.00%.” Source: U.S. Drought Monitor — AZ (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy snow for higher elevations of the Klamath, Sierra Nevada, and Wasatch Mountains along with Colorado Rockies, Tue-Mon, Nov 17-23.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)
• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “Slight risk of heavy precipitation for parts of Arizona, California, and southwestern Oregon, Tue-Mon, Nov 17-23.” Source: CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 1 (AZ)

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 3:00 PM CST (NWS San Angelo TX), for parts of Mason, TX. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 6:00 AM CST (NWS Austin/San Antonio TX), for parts of Llano, TX. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Rip Current Statement, in effect until 6:00 PM CST (NWS Corpus Christi TX), for parts of Aransas Islands, Kleberg Islands and Nueces Islands. Source: NWS active alerts — TX (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “While surface high pressure continues to favor enhanced odds of below-normal precipitation across portions of the East, return flow around this feature is likely to contribute to elevated probabilities of above-normal precipitation…” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 4 (TX) · Coastal Flood Advisory: 2 (TX) · Flood Advisory: 2 (TX) · Rip Current Statement: 2 (TX)

What’s happening

• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning (NWS Melbourne FL), for parts of Seminole, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Flood Warning, in effect until 1:00 AM EST (NWS Tampa Bay Ruskin FL), for parts of DeSoto, FL. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)
• Active NWS alert: Rip Current Statement, in effect until 7:00 PM EST (NWS Jacksonville FL), for parts of Coastal Nassau, Coastal Duval and Coastal Flagler. Source: NWS active alerts — FL (opens in a new tab)

What to watch for

• NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center says: “While surface high pressure continues to favor enhanced odds of below-normal precipitation across portions of the East, return flow around this feature is likely to contribute to elevated probabilities of above-normal precipitation…” Source: CPC 6-10 / 8-14 Day Outlook Discussion (opens in a new tab)

Active NWS alerts: Flood Warning: 6 (FL) · Frost Advisory: 3 (NC) · Flood Advisory: 2 (FL) · Rip Current Statement: 2 (FL) · Coastal Flood Statement: 1 (FL)